WINNING POINTS
New England over N.Y. Giants by 17 (at Glendale, AZ)
Eighteen times New England has been challenged this season and 18 times
they have pulled through. No doubt the Patriots are a team for the ages with
their record-breaking offense,Tom Brady setting the mark for most touchdown
passes in a year and Randy Moss breaking the wide receiver record for scores
in a season. But the Patriots also have gotten lucky recently. First they drew a
crippled San Diego in the AFC championship game and were able to win
despite three interceptions by Brady.Now they get the New York Giants in the
Super Bowl.The Patriots are going to put up a lot of points on a fast track in
Arizona.The Packers might have been able to keep up with them with Brett
Favre and his outstanding receiver group.The Giants don’t have nearly that
kind of firepower. The Giants are a banged-up, courageous group of overachievers
that has won a record 10 straight road games in a season, including
three straight away playoff games as underdogs. The Giants defeated Tampa
Bay, one of the weakest playoff entries in years, caught a flat Dallas squad and
then drew Green Bay in frigid weather conditions that evened things up
between the two teams. However, now they’re stepping way up in class.This
isn’t going to be a close three-point game like it was at Giants Stadium on Dec.
29 when the Patriots had to come from 12 points down in the second half to
pull out a 38-35 victory.This game occurs under totally different mental and
physical conditions.While it’s true the Patriots have covered only two of their
past 10 games and one out of their last eight, these circumstances are entirely
different.The Patriots are a precision passing team.They’ve been playing in
cold weather, which has affected their attack. Brady should have no problem
nullifying the Giants’ fierce pass rush with quick, short drops under what
should be perfect weather conditions in the desert.The Giants’ beat-up secondary
can’t contend with Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, Benjamin
Watson,Kevin Faulk out of the backfield and all the other weapons Brady has,
including running back Laurence Maroney. Cornerbacks Sam Madison,Aaron
Ross and Kevin Dockery, who missed the Packers game, are all dealing with
injuries. It’s not a fluke the Patriots were the greatest scoring team in NFL history.
New England ranked first in offense, averaging 411.3 yards per contest.
The Patriots also were No. 1 in scoring, averaging 36.8 points during the regular
season.They scored a record 589 points. Even if the Giants try doubleteaming
Moss, who hauled in a record 23 touchdown passes, their safeties
aren’t strong enough in coverage to make a difference. The Giants are just
happy to reach the Super Bowl. It’s been a remarkable run.They are to be
applauded.The Patriots, on the other hand, are Super Bowl pros having won
three previous ones, while reaching five AFC title games during the last seven
years. Eli Manning would have to play the game of his life for the Giants to
have a shot.We don’t see that happening. Bill Belichick is a defensive genius.
Give him two weeks to prepare and he can devise the right defense for any
type of offense. Manning deserves credit for playing up to his abilities during
the post-season, but keep in mind opposing defenses were geared to stop the
run and let Manning try to beat them. He did that by being efficient and not
throwing interceptions. Manning has been able to go with the flow and manage
during the playoff rather than make huge plays. He’s averaged 200 yards
passing in the three playoff games.Now his role is going to change,where he’ll
need to be a feared playmaker. Manning has two decent running backs,
Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, and an outstanding wide receiver,
Plaxico Burress.Whether Burress,bothered by an ankle injury nearly the entire
season, is 100 percent remains to be seen. However, Manning’s other targets
are an over-the-hill 33-year-old Amani Toomer and raw Steve Smith.The loss of
star tight end Jeremy Shockey is difficult to replace. Manning lacks a reliable
third target.Brady has multiple options.The Chargers couldn’t stretch the field
with their great tight end, Antonio Gates, rendered practically immobile
because of a dislocated toe.That’s what you need to do to have a shot against
the Patriots.New England’s defense can’t match its offense, but it is solid and
extremely well-coached. New England yielded an average of 17.1 points per
game.The Patriots have some age, but veterans Junior Seau, Rodney Harrison
and Co. will be helped by the two week interval. Because Belichick has good
cover cornerbacks, he can unload every blitz imaginable against the immobile
Manning. NEW ENGLAND 38-21.
OVER/UNDER: The Super Bowl total often is jacked up by the oddsmaker,
anticipating public money to be on the ‘over.’That’s probably going to be the
case here. Still, you have to figure this is going to be a high-scoring game, just
like the team’s first meeting when 73 points were scored.The Patriots are 10-
4-1 to the ‘over’ in their last 15 games as a favorite of 10 _ or more points.New
England went above the total in 10 of its first 12 games this season until the
weather started turning bad.This matchup is going to be in ideal conditions.
Brady should have little trouble picking apart a vulnerable, beat-up Giants secondary.
The Giants have gone ‘under’ in four of their last five games as a road
underdog.The Giants would like to keep the ball away from Brady by establishing
an effective ground attack. Belichick is no fool. He’ll be having his
defense geared to take away the run, forcing the Giants to pass more than perhaps
they would like.Super Bowl games often turn into blowouts when things
get out of hand because the team trailing has nothing to lose.That very well
could be the case here.
--------------------
2008 College: 50-40-1
2008 NFL: 20-13
2008-2009 Season: 71-52
2007-2008 Season: 186-133-9
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