BEN BURNS
SUPER BOWL
PATRIOTS (-14 or better)
I'm laying the points with NEW ENGLAND. Early money has come in on the underdog Giants. I feel that move is a mistake though and really like the additional value which has now been provided on the favorite. The Patriots have the more complete team and I believe that they are stronger on both sides of the ball. Note that the Patriots outscored opponents by a 35.7 to 17 margin this season while the Giants only outscored their opponents by a 23.2 to 21.2 margin. In addition to having a ton of "big game experience," the Patriots also have both a much better quarterback and a significantly better coach. I believe that the coaching factor becomes particularly relevant when teams are playing with an extra week of rest in between games. Note that the Patriots are a respectable 14-9 SU the last 23 times (4-0 the last four) that they played with two or more weeks of rest in between games. During the same stretch, the Giants have gone just 5-14 SU (6-12-1 ATS) when playing with two or more week's worth of rest between games. The Giants almost never see over/under lines this high. However, its worth mentioning that the Patriots are a perfect 11-0 SU the last 11 times that they played a game with an over/under line of 49.5 or greater, going a profitable 8-3 against the number. The Patriots, who have won 11 of their last 12 against teams from the NFC, are also a lucrative 52-30-7 ATS (63.4%) the past 15 years when playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season. During the same stretch, the Giants were just 33-39-2 ATS when playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, going just 23-51 SU. The past two Super Bowls have both been decided by double-digits. I feel that this year's game is an even bigger mismatch than either of those matchups and I expect a convincing victory for the history-making Patriots.
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2008 College: 50-40-1
2008 NFL: 20-13
2008-2009 Season: 71-52
2007-2008 Season: 186-133-9
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