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Marc Lawrence's Playbook

New England over NY GIANTS by 10

Hide your heart, girls… Eli’s coming. Forget about Peyton. Suddenly he’s
old news. Eli Manning and the record-setting Giants take on Tom Brady
and his record-setting 18-0 Patriots in SB XLII. New England’s quest for
perfection is superseded by the AFC’s dominance in the Super Bowl, where they’ve
captured 8 of the last 10 games. In fact, they’ve also held the upper hand over the
NFC throughout this decade, posting a 246-193-1 SU & 233-192-15 record entering
this season, including 66-8 SU & 44-28-2 ATS as favorites of seven or more points.
This year, however, the NFC manned up and battled its brethren toe-to-toe, going
32-32 SU – including 17-15 SU & 15-15-2 ATS with teams that sported a record of
.500 or better. Hmmm. Before we knee-jerk on that thought alone, let’s closely
examine what it is that each team brings to the table in this contest.
In truth, New England’s season was galvanized when Bill Belichick was called out in
the ‘Spygate’ scandal. It served as the impetus they were looking for, rallying around
the incident and bursting out of the gates with eight wins and covers during the first
half of the season (average win margin of 25.5 PPG while beating the spread by
+117.5 points). Since then, while still managing to remain undefeated, they enter the
Super Bowl on a dismal 2-8 ATS slide. In the process, NE's average win margin
dipped to 12.2 PPG and its net-spread fell faster than Britney’s panties at a posh
Vegas club, closing out -40.5 points. Not exactly endearing numbers for a team
installed as two touchdown favorites vs. a dog that refuses to believe it doesn’t belong!
The Giants' incredible run to Glendale occurred despite an 0-2 start (losses to Dallas
and Green Bay). Since then they have won an NFL record 10 straight road games,
going 9-1 ATS while beating the spread +83.5 points in those games away from the
Big Apple. They also handed Green Bay QB Brett Favre his first-ever home loss in
games from December out against an opponent off a win in which the Packers
entered with a win percentage of .640 or more (now 17-1 and 16-1-1 ATS). In addition,
the G-Men become only the third team in NFL history to make the ‘big game’ by
winning three consecutive playoff games on the road. They’ll have two weeks to refuel
while dissecting a season-ending 38-35 loss to the Pats (as 13.5 point home dogs).
From a head coaching perspective, it’s hard to refute Bill Belichick’s sterling record especially in the post-season: 15-3 SU (12-0 as chalk), but only 9-8-1 ATS. And Over/
Under fans should note that his teams are 7-11 UNDER in the playoffs. For what it’s
worth, Belichick is 13-1 SU in his career in games when the Over/Under total in the
game is posted at 49 or higher. He also owns top-notch numbers against NFC foes
as a head coach in the NFL, going 36-15 SU & 30-19-2 ATS against the confederates.
Inside those numbers is a 14-5 SUATS mark when his team is off an ATS loss and
also a 25-10 SUATS record if they scored less than 28 points in their previous game.
His counterpart, Tom Coughlin, answers with a bevy of good numbers, too. Included
is a 6-2 ATS mark as a dog of 11-plus points and a nifty 17-11 ATS log in games off
a SU dog win (6-1 SUATS the last seven). Coughlin is also a very dangerous 8-7 SU
& 9-4-2 ATS in his NFL career in games against undefeated teams!
Sure-shot Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady’s numbers speak for themselves. He’ll enter
SBXLII with a career record of 100-25 SU & 76-45-4 ATS (but only 11-11 ATS as
a double-digit favorite). Included is a brilliant 14-2 SU mark in the post-season with
three Super Bowl rings to show for his efforts. Giant QB Manning is just beginning
to create his own legacy. As a starter in the NFL, Eli is 32-27 SU & 35-24 ATS, but
19-9-1 ATS away from home. He’s also a noteworthy 29-12-1 ATS in games after
the Giants scored more than 17 points the previous game.
In closing, some SUPER BOWL FACTS to ponder: the last twelve Super Bowls have
seen the favorite go 9-3 SU & 4-6-2 ATS; the last 14 favorites to score 30 or less points
are 2-11-1 ATS; teams who score 27 or more points are 23-1 SU & 21-2-1 ATS; teams
who score less than 20 points are 0-23 SU & 3-19-1 ATS. And, since 1980, teams
who won a playoff game in overtime are 5-10 SU & 7-8 ATS in their next game,
including 0-2 SU & ATS if the next game had Roman Numerals attached to it.
Whew. A lot of numbers to digest, to be sure. The bottom line is that the pressure
is squarely on New England to become the first team since the 1972 Dolphins to
escape a season unscathed from start to finish. The problem is they are leaking oil
(pointspread) badly while their opponent is super-surging. Yes, Eli’s coming and
the cards say... a broken heart for Giants’ fans. Brady gets his fourth ring while
Manning takes home the experience and a pocketful of cash. Enjoy the game…

A few number to note
Patriots are 2-8 ATS their last 10
Their average margin of victory fell from 25.5 ppg top 12.2 in the last half of the season

The Giants won ten straight road games going 9-1 ATS while beating the spread by +83.5 points in that time away from NY.

Bellichick is 15-3 SU (12-0 as chalk) but only 9-8-1 ATS in the playoffs
And 7-11 under in the playoffs
He is 13-1 SU when the posted otal is 49 or higher
He is also 36-15 SU 30-19-2 ATS agaionst thr NFC
14-5 if of an ATS loss and 25-10 SUATS if they scored less than 28 in their previous game

Coughlin is 6-2 ATS as an 11 plus point underdog and 17-11 off a straight up dog win(6-1 SUATS last 7)
He is also 8-8 SU and 9-4-2 ATS against undefeated teams

Brady is 100-25 SU and 76-45-4 ATS(but only 11-11 as a double digit favorite)including a brilliant 14-2 SU mark in the post season

Eli Manning as a starter is 32-27 SU and 35-24 ATS but 19-9-1 away from home
Also, he is 29-12-1 in gamwes after they score more than 17

Super Bowl facts to ponder
Super Bowl favorites are 9-3 SU but only 4-6-2 the last 12 years
The last 14 favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-11-1 ATS
Teams who score 27 or more points are 23-1 SU and 21-2-1 ATS
Teams who score less than 20 points 0-23 SU and 3-19-1ATS
Since 1980 teams who won a playoff game in OT are 5-10 SU and 7-8ATS in the net game including 0-2 SUATS if the next game was a SB

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2008 College: 50-40-1
2008 NFL: 20-13
2008-2009 Season: 71-52
2007-2008 Season: 186-133-9

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