THE GOLD SHEET
SUPER BOWL XLII
We’ve seen enough playoff rematches of regular-season meetings to realize
that the result of earlier matchups are hardly foolproof indicators of what’s to
come. Which was confirmed by the Giants’ 23-20 overtime NFC title game win
at Green Bay that reversed the Packers’ convincing regular-season triumph at
the Meadowlands. Nonetheless, we believe a quick revisit of the regularseason
meeting between New England and New York is in order, especially
since it took place rather recently (December 29, during the final week of the
regular season).
Of course, that Saturday night battle was a memorable affair because of the
uncommon hype it received, being that it was the last hurdle for the Patriots to
clear in their quest for an unbeaten regular season, an achievement New
England was hellbent on accomplishing. And the Patriots indeed got it done,
but it wasn’t easy. The Giants, already locked into the fifth NFC playoff seed
before kickoff and with little to play for, still made New England sweat. New
York showed no fear and plenty of versatility, surging to a 28-16 lead in the third
quarter before Tom Brady began to chip away. The big play of the game turned
out to be Brady’s 65-yard TD pass to Randy Moss early in the 4th Q that not only
gave Brady an NFL record 50 TD passes and Moss a record 23 TD receptions,
but also put the Patriots up for good. Still, the outcome wasn’t decided until New
England recovered an onside kick in the last minute, preserving the 38-35 win,
and the Giants exited the game feeling pretty good about themselves (“I never
saw a locker room so upbeat after a loss because we played so well,” said Eli
Manning). Indeed, the Patriots needed a big night from Brady (356 YP) to
compensate for their inability to establish the run (just 44 YR) and to counteract
the suddenly confident Eli, who threw 4 TD passes. New England’s special
teams were also burned by Domenik Hixon’s 74-yard kick return TD. Indeed,
the Patriots had dodged the proverbial bullet.
And we don’t see any reason why the rematch shouldn’t be just as, if not even
more, competitive.
Besides that close call at the Meadowlands, there is plenty to indicate from
other recent performances that not much separates these teams right now. The
Patriots’ string of blowout wins ended before Thanksgiving. Though still
winning, New England appeared to peak at midseason, and a series of
struggles down the stretch (including that aforementioned struggle vs. the
Giants, plus narrow escapes vs. marginal Eagles and Ravens squads, not to
mention only one pointspread cover in their last 8 games) suggests as much.
Brady, perhaps compromised by that mild ankle sprain, was not nearly his best
in the AFC title game vs. San Diego, tossing an uncharacteristic three picks. If
anything, Eli has been the sharper QB in the postseason, with 4 TDP and no
picks in three difficult road assignments.
Let’s also not forget Bill Belichick’s history in Super Bowls with the Patriots.
Three wins in as many tries, but no easy ones in the bunch. In fact, each of the
triumphs was recorded by a mere three points, and the clutch PK (Adam Vinatieri)
who won two of those games at the final gun is now employed by the Colts.
Indeed, a valid argument could be made that the Giants are playing better
football going into the game than New England. New York has won
impressively on the road in postseason at difficult Tampa Bay, Dallas, and
Green Bay venues. The “good Eli” has been on display throughout the playoffs,
eliminating the mistakes that plagued him earlier in his career. Belichick is
unlikely to pull any tricks on old cohort Coughlin, another product of the Bill
Parcells coaching tree. The Giants are riding a Banzai Pipeline-sized wave of
confidence, having won ten straight on the road. And they have absolutely no
fear of the Patriots, especially after pushing them to the limit in the regularseason
finale. Besides, all streaks end; we remember a UCLA basketball win
streak almost five times as long as New England’s ending in dramatic fashion
once upon a time at Notre Dame, too.
New England might get to the magic 19-0, but if it does so, we don’t think it’s
going to be easy. In fact, we’re not sure the Patriots will get there at all. That’s
because the better team right now might be the one getting all of those bobonus
points from the oddsmakers.
Predicted score: NY GIANTS 31 - New England 30
--------------------
2008 College: 50-40-1
2008 NFL: 20-13
2008-2009 Season: 71-52
2007-2008 Season: 186-133-9
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