THE MAX
Super Bowl: It is certainly a unique situation to have two teams who played each other in the regular
season finale match up against one another in the Super Bowl. Remember the role that special teams
played in that one. The Patriots actually dominated the game at the line of scrimmage. If you discount two
“take a knee” possessions at the end of the half and game, New England had 9 drives where they were
trying to do something. They scored on 7 of them. 6 were drives of 50 yards or more, while one was only
39 yards. The Giants had only 4 scoring drives, though all of them were TD drives of 60 yards or more.
New York played well that night but New England won first downs 27-19 and yardage 390-316. New
England didn’t make the Giants work very hard for their 35 points, as the Giants scored a point for every 9.1
yards they gained. That kickoff return was huge in keeping that contest close.
Early Prop Play: Legend has it the first Super Bowl prop was the “will The Fridge score a TD?” prop that
was universally pounded by the betting public in Las Vegas. Maybe Mike Ditka cashed on that one and
that’s why he didn’t offer Walter Payton the opportunity to score a Super Bowl TD. As we communicated
with you regarding our “longest punt over 42½ yards” prop, a lot of sports books put out weak numbers on
these things. You just have to be in the right place at the right time with those. By now nearly every mistake
has been exposed and the numbers have been pounded into place.
Super Bowl XLII @ Glendale, AZ
February 3, 2008, 6:30PM
New England Patriots vs. New York Giants
Opening Line: Patriots –14
Current Line: Patriots –12, 53½
Though the universally hoped-for Favre return to the Super
Bowl didn’t happen, there are a lot of interesting subplots
to this game. And it starts with the coaches. Close friends
from their time with the Giants Tom Coughlin (then a wide
receivers coach) and Bill Belichick (secondary coach) were
close friends and colleagues in their time together with the
Giants. After Big Blue’s second Super Bowl win (the upset
over the Bills), both left for head coaching jobs, Coughlin
with Boston College and Belichick with the Browns. When
Parcells left that spring with health problems, the Giants
promoted Ray Handley.
Belichick’s competency is unquestioned, but 12-months
ago most Giants observers were in shock that Coughlin had
been invited back for the 2007 season. Many of his players
hated him, but Coughlin made efforts to become more
player-friendly this season (showing a warmer side at
times, expressing a sense of humor, a players advisory
council, etc.) and the departure of Tiki “Me-ki” Barber
helped with chemistry. It was also a blessing to have
Michael Strahan hold out from training camp, so he didn’t
have time to let his bitterness ferment during the dog days
of July and August. You wouldn’t know it from his facial
expressions on the sideline or his chewing out of place
kicker Tynes after his misses Sunday, but his better
relationships with his players are one key to the success of
the Giants.
The Giants 10 straight road wins in the same season is a
record that will truly never be broken, as any team on that
kind of road streak in the future will have a better home
record than New York’s 3-5 and therefore have home
games during the playoffs. Manning didn’t really play well
in those road wins, as he had 2 interceptions in four
different road games this season and 6 of his 7 lost
fumbles occurred on the road. He had 13 TD’s and 11
INT’s at home and 10 TD’s and 9 INT’s on the road. It
was defense and the running game (8 of 12 games with
100+ rushing yards were on the road) that led to New
York’s surging on the highway.
The Patriots success is built on the old (5 players starting
their fourth Super Bowl), and the new (different starters at
right tackle, right guard, and fullback for all 4 Super Bowls,
along with 6 different starters and cornerback and 6
different wide receivers in the big game). Pulling in topnotch
talent like Adalius Thomas, Randy Moss, and Wes
Welker in the most recent offseason was a bonus. There
are veteran players thrilled to be here, young players
thrilled to be here, and a core of veteran leaders who know
what it takes and what to expect once they get here. They
won’t be intimidated by the Super Bowl setting.
After relentless pressure from Michael Strahan, Osi
Umenyiora, Justin Tuck (and what a 24-year old building
block he is), and their cohorts, Cowboys QB Tony Romo
talked about changing his approach to take the Giants pass
rush into account. Tom Brady, with a high ankle sprain
and three interceptions against the Chargers, is now seen
as being vulnerable. But let’s remember that it was a cold,
gusty day in Foxoborough on the day of the AFC
Championship game and this game will be played with the
retractable roof of University of Phoenix Stadium closed.
Against the Jaguars Brady was 26 of 28 and struggling
against the Chargers (best secondary in the league?) with
that wind is no black mark. But he already played well
against the Giants pass rush once, and the Giants
secondary is far from world class.
Despite his mistake-free football in the playoffs, Eli
Manning can’t scare the Patriots. Belichick is always
looking to take away what the opponents do best, and
already has had success in shutting down a two-headed
running attack this postseason, as the Jaguars Fred Taylor
and Maurice Jones-Drew were held to 66 yards on 19
carries. And the fact that the Patriots practiced twice in
pads during the off week indicates that run defense was an
area of priority. There has been room in the secondary for
opposing passers lately, and Plaxico Burress has been an
absolute warrior playing through his injuries. But Rodney
Harrison and Asante Samuel are brilliant at baiting
opposing quarterbacks into mistakes. It is unlikely that
Manning will keep up his mistake free ways. But he should
be able to move the ball through the air.
Brady’s ankle appears to be OK, and he’s no Vince Young,
he just needs to be able to move deftly in the pocket, as
he is rarely a run threat. Keep an eye on the flu bug that
kept some Giants out of practice over the weekend, though
there’s plenty of time for Giants to get healthy. But for the
most part, folks are healthy.
The last two double-digit pointspread favorites have lost
their Super Bowls (2001 Patriots upset Rams, 1997
Broncos upset Packers). And the Patriots appear to have
come back to the field (from a pointspread perspective,
though they easily could have covered both playoff
games). But the fact remains that the Patriots are 18-0
while outgaining their opponents by 114 yards per game
and a full yard per play. The Giants have been outgained
8 times this season and don’t outplay their opponents on
the line of scrimmage, gaining and allowing 5.2 yards per
play while being +22 yards per game in raw yardage. The
unique setting of the Super Bowl favors a Patriots team
that has 5 starters that have been here all 4 times to lead
their teammates.
But while the Patriots are the better team, the recent
pointspread malaise (8-0 to the spread in the first half, 2-8
since, and laying double digits in their last 9 games) and
the fact that they’re laying big points again makes them a
dicey proposition. But the edge that New England has in
the passing game makes scoring points likely. New
England gains 8.0 yards per pass attempt while allowing
5.9. The Giants gain only 5.9 yards per pass attempt
while allowing 6.2. Those passing edges haven’t helped
the Pats’ pointspread results lately but they’re playing in
perfect conditions once again and have got a ton more big
game experience than the Giants do. So we won’t be
tempted by those big points. The side is a pass and we
have a lean to the over as we think both quarterbacks will
have some production as we look for the teams to bounce
back from low scoring games in poorer weather.
--------------------
2008 College: 50-40-1
2008 NFL: 20-13
2008-2009 Season: 71-52
2007-2008 Season: 186-133-9
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